Welcome to 2022!
This is part of a communication series to health leaders in GHM’s partner countries. (sent January, 2022)
“It was not what strategists had imagined decades ago. No nuclear weapons. No missiles or destructive cyber security technology. But massively lethal and devastating to economies and the lives of hundreds of millions of people, nonetheless. And countries are not fighting one another but a small, unseen and unpredictable virus that poses a threat to virtually all nations regardless of the nature of their governments or political philosophies.”
~ Robert Hormats, senior official for five U.S. President administrations, global business leader currently Vice Chairman of Kissinger Associates, Inc.
For the past two years, we have lived on a Pandemic Planet.
We have lost some of the progress made on our Global Goals – particularly from the lens of SDG #3: Good Health and Well-Being for All.
But we can…
turn the page.
2022 marks the beginning of the 3rd year of the COVID-19 pandemic (and Chapter 3 of this series).
Emotionally, we are all “over” COVID-19, but COVID-19 is not over us.
Physically, COVID-19 is literally all over us.
Look Back
For perspective, let’s review where we have been with the COVID-19 disease:
2020 – Getting COVID
Phase 1: Discovery & Declare – After (delayed?) Discovery, WHO Declares COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020
Phase 2: Disinformation & Duck – A dis/misinformation pandemic also spreads, along with science supporting behaviors to Duck/Dodge large in-person gatherings & Cover our mouth
Phase 3: Deny & Dance – While many Deny science and the virus, countries and states begin their own version of the balance Dance to both lock-down measures and open-up economies
2021 – Getting Over COVID
Phase 1: Decide & Deliver – Most (narrowly?) Decide that science should have the upper arm and vaccines start to be Delivered the arms way
Phase 2: Discriminate & Dialogue – COVID-19 reveals that it does not Discriminate, but many of our systems and structures do, resulting in increased Diversity Dialogue and awareness
Phase 3: Debate & Defend – Despite Disinformation and Denial, a Deliberate Debate evolves and escalates along with Devious variants. Individuals may decline vaccination and countries may decline vaccines, Defending their position, for Different reasons https://www.devex.com/news/african-countries-to-decline-covid-19-vaccines-with-short-shelf-lives-102324
Look Around
Where are we now?
In this past month, the Omicron variant of the SARSCoV-2 virus has accelerated and now has become the most common variant, accounting for the majority of new COVID-19 infections globally and 95% of new infections in the U.S. (CDC).
We have vaccines that clearly help prevent infection and reduce severity if infected.
Scientists continue to learn how re-formulate vaccines to be more effective with new mutations; some strive for a universal coronavirus vaccine.
People are building habits to manage infection and severity risks to continue their lives, creating a new normal in a pandemic world.
Perhaps like never before, more people are appreciating that
Health is Global - we share one planet with all living things.
Humanity is “Destroying” that planet (Anthropocene) – we must parse out the regress from our progress
The SARS CoV-2 virus, like most infectious diseases, emerged from an animal host that humanity transgressed
2022 - Getting On with COVID
Phase 1: Depends - This Phase of 2022 Depends on You – the GHAP Partner Health and Healthcare leaders around the globe.
We are learning why to align globally, and how to adapt locally.
Public Leaders in global and national settings play a role … and we need to play our role locally and regionally.
Lessons for Global Health Leaders
“Cumulative cultural evolution teaches us that challenging situations are resolved by leadership.. And that our common humanity and the triumph of the human spirit over adversity are what bind us on this small, fragile planet.”
~ Noel Lateef, President & CEO of Foreign Policy Association
Leaders learn from the past, especially our mistakes, and help “turn the page” for a brighter future –
We have learned how to better prepare for the next pandemic.
How can we turn this disease from pandemic to endemic?
Leaders, you and we together, will author the script of this Phase 1 of 2022.
Leaders have fun and celebrate! Click this link to check out the “Spirit Competition” winner at the WorldQuest Trivia event last month hosted by Global Minnesota (the World Affairs Council for MN). https://youtu.be/wZPYwkUMFR4
Asante/Gracias/Misaotra/Merci/Thank you for your local and global leadership to achieve SDG 3 “Health for All.”
Rob Thames, FACHE, FHFMA, Director, GHAP (Global Health Administration Partners)
Update on the Race between the Virus, Vaccinations … and Variants
Variants – According to the CDC, the new omicron VOC (B.1.1.529) now accounts for 95% of new COVID-19 infections.
January 8, 2022:
A shot in the arm: Over 9.4 Billion doses have been given in 184 countries. The current rate is over 35M doses per day; about one-third of this (~11M) are people getting a first shot - at this rate, it would take ~3 months to cover 75% of the population. Because of the variants, it is believed that a higher rate of coverage is needed to achieve a herd immunity effect.
Countries: Globally, 122 doses have been given for every 100 people. Herding cats: 43 places have given at least one dose to 75% or more of its population. Cuba leads all countries with 274 doses per 100 population. For reference: Chile is 235, UAE 212, UK 202, EU 171, El Salvador 149, US 155. Of the 459M total US doses, VT doses/100 are nearly double ID (203 vs 114).
Virus – Globally, according to the JohnsHopkins COVID-19 Tracker, the reported COVID-19 infection count as of 8 January 2022 is:
5.4M deaths – this is about the population of Norway; Reality? - A recent study by the Economist using machine learning estimated as many as 17 million people world-wide, more than three times the reported number, had died of Covid-19;
304 million COVID-19 cases have been reported – while experts concur that the actual number of people infected is a multiple of this reported number, it is still larger than the population of all but the three largest countries;
Check out the January 10 blog on this website for a COVID-19 update on GHM Partner countries, thanks to Lon Kightlinger, epidemiologist and GHM Board member.